Global Offshore Wind Power Development Status and Trend Analysis
The development of offshore wind power will not only contribute to the low-carbon transition of energy, but will also enhance the security of energy supply. At present, more and more countries are focusing on offshore wind power. The offshore wind power industry is ushering in a new era of large-scale and rapid development, with huge development potential. According to World Bank data, there are more than 71,000 gigawatts of offshore wind power resources available globally. According to the “Global Wind Energy Report 2022” released by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), the compound annual growth rate of global offshore wind power is expected to reach 8.3% in the next five years, and the cumulative installed capacity will exceed 90 GW in 2022-2026. At the same time, the investment in global offshore wind power projects is growing rapidly. According to the “World Energy Investment Report 2022” released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), direct investment in offshore wind power will still exceed US$50 billion in 2021. While the scale of the global offshore wind power market is rapidly expanding, it has also brought some new trends to the offshore wind power industry.
1. Overview of the global offshore wind power market
(1) New installed capacity maintains a strong growth momentum
Thanks to technological advancements and business model innovations, the wind energy industry is developing rapidly. The “Global Wind Energy Report 2022” released by GWEC pointed out that in 2021, the newly installed capacity of offshore wind power in the world will be 21.1 GW, a year-on-year increase of two times, and the proportion of newly installed wind power capacity in the world will reach 22.5%, the largest increase in history. By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in the world will reach 57 GW, a year-on-year increase of 58%, and the proportion of offshore wind power in the total installed capacity of wind power in the world has risen to 7%.
In terms of regional distribution, China has become the country with the largest cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power. Data show that in 2021, China’s newly installed offshore wind power capacity will be 16.9 million kilowatts, accounting for 80% of the world’s new offshore wind power installed capacity; the cumulative installed capacity will be 27.77 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world.
(2) Multi-country accelerated deployment of offshore wind power projects
At present, many governments have regarded the deployment of offshore wind power as an important way to achieve energy security and transformation, as well as low-carbon goals, and have set ambitious installation targets. Recently, major countries in Europe, Asia, North America and other regions have increased investment in and construction of offshore wind power projects.
In Europe, since the beginning of this year, affected by the geopolitical situation, in order to ensure energy security, many countries have adjusted their energy policies and increased the deployment of renewable energy, and the demand for photovoltaic and wind power installed capacity in the region has remained strong. The “Energy Security Strategy” issued by the United Kingdom proposes that by 2030, the target of the installed capacity of offshore wind power in the United Kingdom will be increased from the previous 40 GW to 50 GW. Norway’s offshore wind power-related plan proposes to develop 30 GW of offshore wind power installed capacity by 2040, which is almost equivalent to Norway’s current total installed capacity. The heads of government of Denmark, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands jointly signed a joint statement at the “North Sea Offshore Wind Power Summit”, promising to increase the installed capacity of offshore wind power in the four countries by nearly 10 times by 2050, from the current 16 GW to 150 GW ; By 2030, the total installed capacity of offshore wind power will reach 65 GW.
In Asia, under the double drive of the global green wave and the “dual carbon” goal, China’s offshore wind power has developed rapidly, and its installed capacity has leapt to the first place in the world. In addition to China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries have also accelerated their deployment in recent years. By 2030, the total planned installed capacity will exceed 25 GW.
In North America, the United States has increased its strategic focus on offshore wind power deployment, planning to deploy 30 GW of offshore wind power capacity by 2030 and 110 GW of offshore wind power capacity by 2050.
(3) A new pattern of competition in the global market has basically taken shape
From the perspective of global market competition, according to the 2021 global wind power machine manufacturer ranking released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), Vestas, Goldwind, and Siemens Gamesa rank among the top three in the world The total installed capacity accounts for 36% of the global market share. Envision Energy ranked fourth in the world, with a substantial increase in export volume, followed by General Electric (GE) in fifth place. Among the top ten complete machine manufacturers in the world, Chinese wind power companies occupy six seats, and the cumulative installed capacity accounts for about 44.8% of the global annual new scale.
According to BNEF data, in the 2021 ranking of global offshore wind power complete machine manufacturers, Shanghai Electric, Mingyang Smart, Goldwind Technology and China Haizhuang occupy the top four positions of global offshore wind power complete machine manufacturers, among which Shanghai Electric ranks No. one.
From the perspective of market share, since 2010, the share of international fan manufacturers in the Chinese market has continued to decline. According to BNEF data, Siemens Gamesa’s ranking will drop to sixth in 2021, and it will be replaced by the rise of Chinese complete machine manufacturers. In the past two years, under the guidance of China’s “double carbon” goals, the advantages of offshore wind power have been fully demonstrated, and the development speed has accelerated.
(Source: BNEF)
Figure 3 New installed capacity of global TOP10 wind power complete machine manufacturers in 2021
2. Analysis of the development trend of global offshore wind power
(1) Continue to move towards large-scale
The average capacity of offshore wind turbines has shown a continuous growth trend in recent years. Taking Europe as an example, the average capacity of new offshore wind turbines in Europe has increased from 7.2 MW in 2019 to 8.2 MW in 2020. With the increase in demand, the capacity of wind turbines has become larger. Up to now, the largest single-unit capacity of foreign offshore wind turbines is 15 MW released by Vestas; the largest domestic single-unit capacity and the world’s largest offshore wind turbine is 16 MW released by Mingyang Intelligent. The capacity of wind turbines will continue to grow in the future. GWEC predicts that the average capacity of new offshore wind turbines in the world will reach 11.5 MW in 2025. Henrik Stiesdal, a global pioneer in offshore wind power, even believes that the capacity of offshore wind turbines will reach a milestone of 20 MW in 2030.
Although large turbines cost more than smaller models, these giant turbines can significantly reduce the cost of wind turbine materials per unit capacity, thereby reducing the cost of wind turbines per unit capacity, while saving developers other costs such as foundations, cables and installation. According to calculations by Rystad Energy, for a 1 GW offshore wind power project, the use of 14 MW wind turbines will save US$100 million in investment compared to the use of 10 MW wind turbines.
(Source: GWEC)
Figure 4 Growth of offshore wind turbine unit capacity
(2) Going to the deep sea and turning to floating wind power
With the gradual development of offshore resources, offshore wind power projects continue to develop in deep seas. Due to the increase in water depth in deep seas, fixed support structures are more difficult. The main technology” has been explored in many countries and regions. According to comprehensive information statistics, in 2021, the newly installed capacity of floating offshore wind power in the world will be 57,000 kilowatts, and the cumulative total installed capacity will reach 121,400 kilowatts. By the end of 2022, the installed capacity of global floating offshore wind power is expected to reach 200-260 MW. According to the forecast of the European Wind Energy Association, by the end of 2030, the global installed capacity of floating wind power will reach 15 million kilowatts. It is conservatively estimated that by 2050, the cost of floating units will drop by 38%.
As the world’s largest offshore wind power market, China is rich in deep-sea wind energy resources, and the development prospects of floating offshore wind power are very broad. For example, Hainan Province has excellent wind energy resources, and the wind speed above 100 meters in the coastal sea area is between 7.5 and 9 meters per second. The medium and long-term offshore wind power development potential is expected to reach about 50 million kilowatts. China’s “14th Five-Year” Renewable Energy Development Plan clearly stated that it will strive to start construction of China’s first floating commercial offshore wind power project during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, and will also launch a batch of hundreds of projects in areas with good resources and construction conditions. Construction of the 10,000-kilowatt deep-sea offshore wind power demonstration project started.
Compared with bottom-fixed offshore wind power, floating offshore wind power has a longer distance to the sea, higher technical requirements, better wind energy resources and greater technical potential. However, despite this, floating offshore wind power, as a key emerging technology, still faces high cost challenges in realizing commercial applications. According to a report released by the industry research organization DNV, the average cost of electricity of the built floating offshore wind farms is more than three times higher than that of traditional fixed offshore wind farms. At present, in the cost composition of floating offshore wind power construction, the two links of equipment and construction account for the highest proportion. In the future, reducing the cost of key components and processes will become a key driving force for the development of the industry. Relevant data show that before 2030, the cost of China’s floating offshore wind power will be about 0.3~0.4 yuan, which is the same as the average on-grid electricity price. At that time, China’s floating offshore wind power is expected to officially enter the commercial development stage.
(3) Offshore wind power hydrogen production will become the key research and development direction of the industry
Green hydrogen produced using 100% renewable energy is becoming the focus of hydrogen energy development, and offshore wind power is more stable and larger-scale than onshore wind power, which is a major advantage for electrolyzing water to produce hydrogen. Offshore wind power The hydrogen production mode is receiving widespread attention.
Globally, the Nordic countries represented by the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium have deployed offshore wind power to produce hydrogen. For example, the Dolphyn project in the UK plans to use a stand-alone device to produce hydrogen in a 4 GW floating wind farm in the UK North Sea. The German AquaVentus offshore hydrogen production project, located near Heligoland in the North Sea of Germany, plans to establish a pilot project including two 14 MW wind turbines before 2025, and is expected to achieve an annual production of 1 million tons of green hydrogen in 2035. The NortH2 project in the Netherlands plans to connect the first batch of wind turbines to the grid for power generation and hydrogen production in 2027, and plans to increase the installed capacity of offshore wind power to 4 GW by 2030, and to exceed 10 GW by 2040, making it the largest offshore wind power in the world. Hydrogen project.
In China, some local governments and enterprises are also accelerating the layout of offshore wind power hydrogen production projects. This year, Shanghai proposed in the “Shanghai Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Medium and Long-Term Plan (2022-2035)” to carry out research on technologies related to hydrogen production from deep-sea wind power, and actively carry out demonstration project construction in combination with the overall layout of Shanghai’s deep-sea wind power. Zhejiang Province proposed in the “14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Renewable Energy in Zhejiang Province” that it will explore a new model for the development of offshore wind power bases and intensively build “offshore wind power + ocean energy + energy storage + hydrogen production + marine ranch + land Industrial base” demonstration project. Other relevant plans of other provinces also proposed to accelerate the deployment of offshore wind power hydrogen production.
In the future, the abundance of wind energy resources, the size of the project, and the progress of existing offshore natural gas pipeline transformation will all affect the cost of hydrogen production from offshore wind power. BNEF expects the median cost of hydrogen production from offshore wind power to fall to around $7/kg in 2025 and below $1/kg in 2050. By 2050, the cost of producing hydrogen from offshore wind power will be lower than that from onshore wind power.
3. Summary
Today, the scale of the global offshore wind power industry is developing rapidly. Especially under the influence of geopolitical tensions since the beginning of the year, many European countries have accelerated the pace of new energy transformation. While greatly increasing the target of offshore wind power installations, they have also accelerated the deployment of projects. At the same time, the technological progress of offshore wind power has reduced construction costs and opened up room for market growth. With the gradual development of offshore wind power in the direction of large-scale and deep sea, the supporting foundation of the unit has also changed from fixed to floating. In the future, the application of new technologies such as offshore wind power hydrogen production and joint power generation with other energy forms or energy storage will provide opportunities for industrial development. Offshore wind power will also combine new economic models such as marine ranching and seawater hydrogen production to realize comprehensive development and utilization of the marine economy. . The application of these innovative technologies and new models will contribute to the rich development of renewable energy and the low-carbon transformation of energy.
