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In the next five years, the global installed capacity of renewable energy may double

Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA, International Energy Agency) released the “Renewables 2022” (Renewables 2022) report (hereinafter referred to as the “report”), pointing out that the global energy crisis will promote the development of renewable energy unprecedentedly. Total global capacity growth in renewable energy will almost double over the next five years, displacing coal as the largest source of electricity generation and potentially limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

◆Renewable energy will change the world

power structure, becoming the largest power source

The global energy crisis is driving the strong development of renewable energy. The report notes that recent disruptions in fossil fuel supply have highlighted the security benefits of renewable energy, leading many countries to strengthen policies to support renewable energy. At the same time, rising global fossil fuel prices have increased the relative competitiveness of photovoltaics and wind power.

“Renewable energy capacity expansion in the next five years will be much faster than we expected a year ago. In 2022-2027, leading forecasts show that renewable energy will grow by nearly 2400 GW, which is equivalent to China’s current installed capacity . This is an 85% increase over the previous five years and a nearly 30% increase over last year’s report forecast, the largest ever forecast upward revision by the IEA.” The report states that during the forecast period (2022-2027), renewable Energy will account for more than 90% of global electricity capacity expansion. The upward revision to the forecast is mainly driven by China, the European Union, the United States and India, all of which are implementing existing policy, regulatory and market reforms while introducing new policies faster than expected in response to the energy crisis.

By early 2025, renewable energy will overtake coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation. The share of renewables in the electricity mix is expected to increase by 10 percentage points over the forecast period, reaching 38% in 2027. Renewables are the only source of generation expected to grow, with coal, natural gas, nuclear and oil seeing their share of generation decline.

It is worth noting that the report mentioned that although China has phased out wind and solar subsidies, as the growth rate accelerates in the next five years, it is expected that China will install nearly half of the global renewable energy power in 2022-2027. “China’s ’14th Five-Year’ Renewable Energy Development Plan policy approach demonstrates its ambitious renewable energy targets, market reforms and strong government support. Among key forecasts, China is expected to achieve the 2030 The goal is to reach 1,200 GW of combined wind and solar power generation.”

◆Prevent supply shortages,

Explore new key growth areas

By 2027, solar installed capacity is expected to overtake coal installed capacity to become the largest installed capacity in the world. The report predicts that cumulative solar power generation will nearly triple between 2022 and 2027, growing by nearly 1,500 GW, surpassing natural gas by 2026 and coal by 2027.

In addition, global wind power capacity nearly doubled, with offshore projects accounting for a fifth of the increase. Over 570 GW of onshore wind capacity is expected to be operational during the period 2022-2027. Global offshore wind growth accelerates as the share of Europe’s offshore installed capacity falls from 50% in 2021 to 30% in 2027 due to China’s rapid expansion.

The report pointed out that in the next five years, wind and solar power generation will more than double, provide nearly 20% of global power generation in 2027, and account for 80% of the growth in global renewable energy power generation. additional requirements. At the same time, growth in dispatchable renewables, including hydropower, bioenergy, geothermal and concentrated solar energy, remains limited, despite their key role in the integration of wind and solar into the global electricity system.

“Global renewable energy capacity dedicated to hydrogen production will grow 100-fold over the next five years, presenting an opportunity to decarbonise industry and transport.” The report states that more than 25 countries on all continents are expected to roll out in the period 2022-2027 Policies and targets will focus up to 50 GW of wind and photovoltaic capacity on hydrogen production. Among them, China led the growth, followed by Australia, Chile and the United States.

By 2027, one-third of new biofuel production will come from waste and residues. Transport greenhouse gas emission reduction policies in Europe and the United States are driving global demand for waste and residues. In the United States, the “Inflation Reduction Act” policy rewards fuels with lower greenhouse gas concentrations, pushing biofuel producers to focus on waste and residues; in Europe, existing renewable energy policies and member state policies also reward biofuels made from waste and residues Biofuels; Singapore and China are also expanding the use of waste and residues to produce renewable diesel and biojet to serve European and US markets.

◆Meet the challenge and narrow down the current

The Gap Between Renewable Electricity and ‘Net Zero’

At the same time, the report identifies the current challenges facing global renewable energy. First, the report notes that renewable heating is not growing fast enough to curb the use of fossil fuels.

Renewable energy consumption for heating is projected to increase by almost a third between 2022-2027. The use of renewable energy for heat will increase from 11% to 14% by 2027. Renewable energy is currently benefiting from policy momentum, with an increasing share of renewable energy in the electricity sector and greater reliance on electricity for heating, including through heat pumps, in the industrial and building sectors. However, the development of renewable energy is not enough to control the heat consumption of fossil fuels.

The report also points to the accelerated case for global renewable energy development: If countries can address policy, regulatory, licensing and financing challenges, global renewable energy capacity will increase by 25% compared to leading forecasts. Most advanced economies face implementation challenges and require faster deployment of renewable electricity in the heating and transport sectors; while in emerging economies, policy and regulatory uncertainty remains a major obstacle to accelerated expansion of renewable energy; Finally, factors such as weak grid infrastructure and lack of access to affordable financing in developing economies hinder the timely commissioning of projects. “If countries are able to meet these challenges, global renewable energy capacity could increase by nearly 3,000GW. This faster growth would significantly close the gap in renewable electricity growth needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.”