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5G will take a long time to develop

According to the law of mobile communication development, from 2G to 4G, generally three years after the formal commercial use, will enter a mature period, the industry will flourish, a hundred flowers bloom. However, it has been nearly four years since the commercial use of 5G, and neither 5G to B nor 5G to C has met the expectations of the industry. In my recent communication with many industry experts and industry users, a common view is that 5G development is not as good as expected, and even a little less than satisfactory.


From the perspective of network construction scale, the number of domestic 5G base stations exceeds 2 million at present; In terms of the number of subscribers, the cumulative number of 5G plans of the three major carriers is nearly 1 billion. From the perspective of market application, last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the “Sail” action plan for 5G application. In the past year, the commercial development of 5G has achieved remarkable results, and a large number of excellent cases have emerged. Operators have also shouted out the slogan of 5G to leap from “model housing” to “commercial housing” and “high-quality housing”. According to the data, 5G has a good momentum. But in reality, 5G development always gives people a feeling of “almost ready”.


This feeling of “almost ready” was further amplified by an expert at this year’s World 5G Conference. The expert’s criticism of the three major operators “5G application 4G” caused another hot discussion in the industry. The “near-fire” of 5G is also reflected in the hot reception in the communication circle and the indifference of industrial users. This “internal heat and external cold” reflects the slow progress of 5G from “model housing” to “commercial housing”.


How do you view the unsatisfactory development of 5G? In other words, how to achieve a rapid leap from “0-1” to “1-N” in 5G development?


It is true and inevitable that 5G development is not satisfactory at present. This must be reflected in the positioning of 5G and previous generations of mobile communication technology is very different. From 1G to 4G, the problem of personal mobile communication is solved. Therefore, these generations of mobile communication technologies are positioned in the personal service market. It is the foreshadows of 1G, 2G and 3G that enable 4G to change life and the prosperity and development of the mobile Internet industry. 5G is different. 5G addresses the interconnection of everything and has been tasked with “changing society” since its inception.


If it took the industry more than 30 years to achieve the development and prosperity of the mobile communication to C market from 1G to 4G, 5G has just begun in the big market of the Internet of everything. From this perspective, 5 g application is a long-term, complexity, systematic project, involving both the IT (information technology), CT (communication technologies), the depth of the OT (operating) fusion, industries and enterprises closely related digital basis, experience, knowledge, not only need the industrial chain upstream and downstream widely participate in various main bodies, “group” cooperation, It is also urgent for the government departments to cooperate, increase support and guidance, promote the integration of 5G applications from “dot blossom” to the whole industry, the whole process, the whole link of the overall penetration, from “model room” to “commercial housing” and then to “hardcover room”, only in this way can the great integration and ecology of 5G applications be formed.


Rome was not built in a day, nor was an era inaugurated overnight. So 5G is just the beginning of the Internet of everything. Think of it as analog mobile or 2G. 5G opens the door to the Internet of everything and starts the engine of the digital age. The development of the industry needs 6G and 7G to complete.